College Football Week 5 Predictions
7. Stanford (3-0) at 10. Washington (4-0) (Friday 9PM ET): Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey is an absolute stud, but besides him the Stanford offense lacks any explosiveness. The Cardinal live and die by McCaffrey, but they will need to find some sort of offensive production from someone else if they want to have a chance at keeping up with the high-scoring Huskies. In what has so far been a down year for the Pac 12, Washington has emerged as a legitimate title contender. Stanford has played a tougher schedule so far and their defense is legit, but I think the Washington O is too much to keep up with in this one.
PICK: Washington 35-20
22. Texas (2-1) at Oklahoma State (2-2) (Saturday 12PM ET): With each passing week Texas's opening weekend win over Notre Dame looks less impressive. After jumping out to a 2-0 record, the Longhorns were outgunned 50-43 in their shootout loss to an average Cal team. Texas's defense is spotty, but their offense has seen a drastic improvement this year. Oklahoma State has had an up and down year so far, they beat a solid Pitt team, but also fell to Baylor last week and to Central Michigan week 2 because of the now infamous last second Chippewa hail mary. Neither team particularly likes playing defense, but I like the Longhorns' O more than the Cowboys'.
PICK: Texas 45-35
14. Miami (3-0) at Georgia Tech (3-1) (Saturday 12PM ET): I don't want to jump the gun, but it looks like Miami might finally be back to their winning way. First year head coach mark Richt has done a terrific job preparing his team and the Hurricanes have mauled all challengers so far. Georgia Tech's triple option offense is always an 'X-factor' and the Yellow Jackets defense frustrated Clemson in the second half of their last game. However Miami is balanced and confident and I don't see Tech scoring enough points in this one.
PICK: Miami 28-13
North Carolina (3-1) at 2. Florida State (3-1) (Saturday 3:30 ET): This not a vintage Florida State defense and the Tar Heels can score. Still licking their wounds from the crunching they took at the hands of Lamar Jackson and Louisville, the Noles outscored in-state foe South Florida last weekend 55-35. North Carolina is coming off of an emotional 37-36 come from behind victory over a tough Pittsburgh team that came down to the waning seconds of the game. Seminoles' freshman QB Deondre Francois is going to be a star and running back Dalvin Cook is a beast, the question for the Seminoles will be whether or not their defense can stop North Carolina. I expect a points in Tallahassee.
PICK: Florida State 42-31
8. Wisconsin (4-0) at 4. Michigan (4-0) (Saturday 3:30 ET): Wisconsin has emerged from the shadows as a dark horse candidate to win the BIG 10 after beating LSU in week 1 and dismantling Michigan State 30-6 last week. The Badgers aren't flashy but they are big and disciplined. Corey Clement is the latest installment of Wisconsin's patent workhorse running back and he is for real. The Badgers wont beat themselves so it is up to mad scientist Jim Harbaugh to create a game plan to exploit Michigan's advantages. Harbaugh has created a monster in Ann Arbor since he arrived in 2015 and they will only improve during his reign. Big Blue just made mince meat of Penn State in their Big 10 opener and Wolverine offense has put up at least 45 points in each of their 4 games. Do-it-all defensive back Jabrill Peppers has a knack for making big plays and I'm excited to see what he can do on Saturday. The key match up to watch for in this one is Michigan's high scoring offense against Wisconsin's bruising defense. In particular, how the Wolverines will try to exploit the distinct size advantage their receivers have over the Badger secondary. Michigan QB Wilton Speight has been terrific protecting the ball all season, just 1 interception, but he will be called upon to do more than manage the game in this one.
PICK: Michigan 31-17
11. Tennessee (4-0) at 25. Georgia (3-1) (Saturday 3:30 ET): Tennessee has been perhaps the most enigmatic team in the country this season. Despite their 4-0 record, the Vols have struggled out of the starting blocks in every single one of their games and have needed second half come backs twice and struggled to put away the juggernaut Ohio Bobcats. That said, this Tennessee team has shown their potential, even if it was because their backs were against the wall. Georgia has proven that they are not a vintage Bulldog team and have struggled in their 3 wins against North Carolina, Missouri, and Nicholls. Things got real last weekend when Georgia was embarrassed 45-14 at Ole Miss. First year head coach Kirby Smart's problems have been compounded as all-everything running back Nick Chubb is questionable for Saturday's game after leaving the game last week with an ankle injury. Dawgs' first year QB Jacob Eason has been average this season, and if Chubb can't play the offense will continue to struggle to score. I'm not sure if Tennessee is for real yet, but Georgia certainly isn't.
PICK: Tennessee 28-10
Oklahoma (1-2) at 21. TCU (3-1) (Saturday 5PM ET): I respect the hell out of Bob Stoops and the Sooners for going out and scheduling Houston and Ohio State for their out of conference slate this year, but it probably has destroyed their chances of returning to the College Football Playoffs. Oklahoma's 1-2 record is misleading because this team is good. QB Baker Mayfield and running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon make up arguably the most talented backfield trio in the country. Oklahoma is big and fast and trying to rebound from their 45-24 loss at the hands of Ohio State two weeks ago. TCU is 3-1 with 3 wins over inferior competition and a wild 41-38 loss to an above average Arkansas team. I have a lot of questions about the TCU defense, and the Frogs' offense is not nearly as dynamic or explosive since the departure of star QB Trevone Boykin. I like the Sooners to put up some points in Ft. Worth on Saturday.
PICK: Oklahoma 42-24
18. Utah (4-0) at California (2-2) (Saturday 6PM ET): Utah has quietly risen to 18th in the AP poll with a 4-0 record. It's still too early to tell how impressive their close wins over USC and BYU are, but the Utes keep getting just enough done to earn their wins. Cal's defense has been worse than abysmal so far this year. They are averaging 42.5 points against per game, which is good enough for 125th out of 128 FBS teams, just behind Charlotte, who gave up 8 first half touchdowns to Lamar Jackson. This match up is peculiar because Utah can't score and Cal can't play defense so the score line could be anything. Conversely, Utah's defense is solid and the Golden Bears' is fast paced and prolific. Either way, I just don't think Cal has the discipline to win this one.
PICK: Utah 38-31
Memphis (3-0) at 16. Ole Miss (2-2) (Saturday 7PM ET): Ole Miss is the best .500 team in the country and they deserve props for scheduling Florida State for their first game of the season, before embarking on a brutal SEC West slate. They dropped a close one against Alabama, but came out guns blazing last week to obliterate Georgia 45-14. Memphis is 3-0 after demolishing all of their opponents this year, but have yet to play anyone semi-decent. The Rebels lost this match up last year and are surely eager for revenge. Ole Miss is just too fast and Chad Kelly is the best QB in the SEC. Without Paxton Lynch I can't see Memphis stealing another one from the Rebels.
PICK: Ole Miss 31-21
***The Big Enchilada of the weekend** 3. Louisville (4-0) at 5. Clemson (4-0) (Saturday 8PM ET): . Saturday night's prime time battle between Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson will have massive College Football Playoff implications and is essentially the de facto ACC Championship. Louisville are 4-0 and have run over everyone in their path. Lamar Jackson has put up astronomical numbers and is the clear Heisman favorite. The Cardinal's defense has been underrated this year as well, as they held Florida State in check en route to their 63-20 statement victory over the Seminoles. The Tigers have started a little slower than expected and have failed to pass the eye test against teams like Georgia Tech and Troy. Preseason Heisman front runner, Deshaun Watson, has not matched his productivity from last year yet, but throughout his career he has proven that he is more than capable of making big plays in big moments. Clemson's defense is big, fast, and mean and should be Jackson's, and the Louisville offense's, biggest challenge of the regular season. Dabo Swinney will undoubtedly have his team hyped with some sore of lame acronym that he thought of, but this is Lamar Jackson's year and I can't see him getting stopped on Saturday night. Death Valley or not, Lamar is a man among boys.
PICK: Louisville 51-27
