Now that the group stage has completed and the dust has settled, we can assess the state of the tournament so far:

The United States went 5-0 through the group stage and is clearly still the team to beat. However, after demolishing lesser foes China and Venezuela by 40+ points, the US looked mortal against sharp shooting teams like Serbia, Australia, and France whose constant motion offense gave the United States defensive fits. It's moronic to ever bet against Coach K, especially with the talent he has at his disposal, so look for the US to clean up their offensive efficiency and have stronger showings in the second halves of their knockout round games.

The surprising team of the tournament has been Australia. Led by their three headed NBA monster of Mathhew Dellavedova, Patty Mills, and Andrew Bogut, the 'Boomers' opened the tournament by dismantling a big and experienced French team by 21 and then a strong Serbian side by 15. They then went on to actually lead the United States by 5 at halftime, before finally succumbing to the Carmelo Anthony-led US by 10. If the Aussies are balanced and if Bogut can continue to be an anchor in the paint and Delly and Mills can keep hitting shots and maintain their high turnover to assist ratio the Boomers will be dangerous in the knockout stage.

France is still a question mark heading into the knockout round. They played the US tough without star Spurs guard Tony Parker and have some serious NBA size with Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert. After opening the tournament with a surprising blow out loss to Australia , Les Bleus squeaked out a one point win against Serbia and thrashed Venezuela and China, before falling by 3 to the United States. Consistency, not talent, is France's problem and they will need to utilize their big men more to make a run at a medal.

In group B you'd have been better off flipping a coin to pick who was going to win each game rather than make a calculated decision. The four teams that advanced, Lithuania, Spain, Croatia, and Argentina, all had identical 3-2 records, as host Brazil narrowly missed a knockout round birth with a 2-3 mark. Spain looked dead in the water after uncharacteristically poor shooting performances in their first 2 games against Croatia and Brazil, which saw them start the tournament 0-2. Conversely, Lithuania started the tournament 3-0 and looked to be the class of the group before getting drubbed by 50 by Spain and dropping their final group game to Croatia. Croatia is a total enigma as they beat Spain, Lithuania, and Brazil, but gave a surprisingly decent Nigeria team their only win and fell to Argentina. And Argentina, the only team besides the US to win Olympic gold in the 'dream team' era, had a mixed bag of results too. Manu Ginobli, Luis Scola, and Andres Nocioni led the Argentinians to wins over Nigeria, Croatia, and Brazil, but fell to Lithuania and were drubbed by Spain in their final game. Based on group B's results it is nearly impossible to rank these 4 teams, but you would have to think Spain, riding a 3 game win streak, has the most momentum heading into the knockout round.

Knockout Round Fixtures and Predictions:

Australia vs. Lithuania

Before the tournament started I would've said the Eastern Europeans take this one, but after watching the Aussies' guard play and Bogut's dominance in the paint I think Australia will win this game. Lithuania is a very solid team and when they shoot the ball well they can compete with anyone, but they have been too inconsistent throughout this tournament for me to pick them.

Croatia vs. Serbia

A good old fashioned former Yugoslavian derby. These teams are very similar to each other, several good big men coupled with serveral sharpshooters and a gritty approach to the sport. Serbia features a solid back court with sharp shooting Bogdan Bogdanovic complemented by Milos Teodosic, who has a knack for getting hot at the right time. Big man Miroslav Raduljica is a bruiser inside and will be a nightmare for the Croats if he can keep out of foul trouble. Croatia relies heavily on all-tournament guard and New Jersey Net Bogdan Bogdanovic to score points, which he as done all tournament. New 76er Dario Saric adds balance to the Croatian offense and has been terrorizing opposing defenses all tournament. There is no love lost between these former commy neighbors and you can expect a gutsy performance by both teams. However, I think Bogdanovic and Saric will be too much to handle and I see the Croats advancing to the Semis in this one.

Spain vs. France

No matter what the sport is, these two border rivals will get up for the game. for the past decade Spain has been recognized as the second best team in the world, but a youthful French team, who does not lack NBA talent is looking to put an end to that perception. Led by all-star Tony Parker and anchored by Batum, Golbert, and Diaw, the French are big and talented. If they can play the way they did against the United States they will be tough to defend. Pau Gasol and Spain are the hottest team in the tournament, railing off 3 consecutive wins to finish off their group stage games. Their early tournament shooting woes seem a distant memory now and they appear to be peaking at the right time. However, Pau is old and Ricky Rubio has looked sub par so far and I expect a tight game. Spain may have the experience but this is probably Tony Parker's last tournament in a French uniform and I just don't seem him bowing out in the quarterfinals. France takes this one in a minor upset.

USA vs Argentina

As aforementioned, Argentina is the only team, besides the US, to win Olympic Basketball gold in the Dream Team era. That was 12 years ago, and the problem for Argentina is that many of their key players this year were key players in 2004 too. Argentina's golden generation has not gotten any younger, and while Manu, Luis Scola, and Nocioni are excellent players, especially internationally, the South Americans lack the legs to keep up with the depth of team USA for 4 quarters. Feisty 25 year old point guard Facundo Campazzo has been a bright spot for the Argentinians all tournament, but after him the talent drop off is glaring. The United States is too big, fast, strong, and well coached to drop this game and I expect them to win this by double digits after Argentina hangs around for a while.