NFL Week 5 Predictions: Scores and Spreads
For this week’s predictions, I’m only going to cover select primetime games, intriguing matchups, and games in which I feel most confident about betting predictions.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) vs San Francisco 49ers
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara
When: Thursday, Oct. 6 (8:25 pm ET)
Forecast: Sunny, High 75 degrees, Wind 13 mph
Outlook
The 49ers haven’t been the same team after their big week 1 victory over the LA Rams (28-0), dropping their last 3 games against the Panthers, Seahawks, and Cowboys. The Arizona Cardinals roll into Levi’s Stadium sporting the same record, and haven’t looked like the team that made it to the NFC Championship last season. Most recently, they dropped a home game against the LA Rams in which they committed 5 turnovers and lost 17-14. Furthermore, it looks likely that Carson Palmer will miss Thursday’s tilt with a concussion, and Drew Stanton won’t provide Cardinals fans any reason to feel confident about coming away with a road victory…especially considering 2 of the 5 Cardinal turnovers were committed by him.
Prediction
The loss of Carson Palmer will be too big for the Cardinals to overcome against a desperate 49ers team. Arizona’s running attack and defense will keep it close, but Drew Stanton commits one too many mistakes in this one…San Francisco improves to a 2-3 record with a 16-13 victory at home.
Best Bet
Yes, I like the 49ers to win, but can you fully trust them? Probably not, so take the points (+3) in this one, just to make sure you don’t get burned by a late scoring drive from Arizona.
Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
When: Sunday, Oct. 9 (1:00 pm ET)
Forecast: N/A (Dome)
Outlook
The Vikings continued to impress without Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson with their convincing home victory over the Giants 24-10. Their defense is proving to be a legitimate force, allowing Sam Bradford to manage the game and do just enough on offense to win games. Though early in its existence, U.S. Bank Stadium is proving to be a fortress that the Vikings are having little trouble protecting. They were able to easily shut down OBJ, so there’s no reason to think they can’t do the same to DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.
Countless fans and pundits expect the Houston Texans to run away with the AFC South. They sit atop their division with a 3-1 record, but it’s tough to see them winning too many games outside of their division. Brock Osweiler was brought in this season to improve their quarterback play, but has been underwhelming this season with a 60.1 QBR. Not to mention, he looked awful at New England. In a game in which I thought they could easily win, the Patriots held Oswiler to a 29.1 QBR. Yes, the Patriots possess one of the better defenses in the league, but the Vikings defense will pose an even bigger threat. Osweiler will have to significantly step up his game if the Texans are hoping to get a positive result out of their trip to the upper Midwest. The Vikings certainly don’t have an electric offense, but a Texans defense without JJ Watt could seriously struggle, even with Jadeveon Clowney beginning to play like a 1st overall pick.
Prediction
The Vikings have the defensive makeup to finish top 3 in the NFL in total defense at the end of year, and I don’t believe I’m going out on a limb by saying so. All I can think about is how awful Osweiler looked against New England in Foxboro, as previously mentioned (another legitimate defense), and he should instill zero confidence for Texans fans and gamblers hoping for a win and/or respectable showing. Granted Sam Bradford and an AP-less Vikings offense don’t necessarily scream blowout, they won’t need to light up the scoreboard to get a victory. The Vikings will play exceptional defense, which will prove to be enough to not only win the game, but cover the spread as well…Vikings win at home 20-6.
Best Bet
For me, Vikings to cover -5.5 points is easy money. My bold prediction is a ZERO touchdown output from the Texans offense…sorry to those DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Lamar Miller fantasy owners.
New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
When: Sunday, Oct. 9 (1:00 pm ET)
Forecast: Cloudy, High 64 degrees, 14 mph
Outlook
After a tough week 3 loss in Philadelphia, the Pittsburgh Steelers looked more like the team most expected them to be. A 43-13 home thrashing of the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football should put any worries about their offense to bed. Le’Veon Bell returned to action after a 3-game suspension in a big way, racking up 178 total yards from scrimmage. With his return, pending he and other key players stay healthy, the Steelers have nothing to hold them back from lighting up the scoreboard every week.
The New York Jets are a team trending down, though still early in the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets offense looked awful again Kansas City in week 3, and a similar trend continued. Sure, the Jets had a tough task hosting the Seahawks and their stingy defense, but another 3 Fitzpatrick interceptions wasn’t the “improvement” that Jets supporters were hoping to see. The 10-6 Jets from last season haven’t carried over to the 2016 season…perhaps they were a team that over performed last season and this is more like the team many expected to see in 2015. Either way, they could be in trouble on Sunday.
Prediction
The Jets will be desperate for a win to keep their chances of returning to the postseason alive, so I expect a better showing from them this week. They still have offensive weapons in Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and Matt Forte to go along with a typically solid defense (as long as they aren’t consistently forced to defend a short field like they have the last two weeks). If the Jets can limit their turnovers, they will keep the game closer than many think. It’s the NFL, and when a good defense is involved, I typically expect a close game. Will that be enough for the Jets? I think not…Pittsburgh wins 23-17.
Best Bet
My score prediction would tell you to take the Jets +7, but can anyone really trust the Jets, especially in a road game against a powerful offense? Probably not, so if you can, tease the Steelers line 6-7 points to give the Steelers an easier spread to cover (or no spread at all).
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Detroit Lions
Where: Ford Field, Detroit
When: Sunday, Oct. 9 (1:00 pm ET)
Forecast: N/A (Dome)
Outlook
It is no stretch to say the 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles are the biggest surprise in this young NFL this season. Carson Wentz has certainly outperformed expectations…even Eagles fans and those inside the organization would agree. He passed his first legitimate test after beating the Steelers 34-3. However, Wentz certainly hasn’t done it alone. The Eagles defense has been a surprise this year, led by defensive coordinator and Jim Schwartz (frankly I can’t stand the guy…he’s more like a weasel than anything. If you don’t believe me, find some videos of his sideline antics when he was the head coach of the out-of-control Detroit Lions). The Weasel King will certainly have his defense ready, just like he did when he led the Bills defense against Detroit in 2014 and asked to be carried on the shoulders of his players after the game (seriously, look it up).
In theory, Wentz and the Eagles offense won’t have much to worry about going up against a Detroit defense that ranks 25th out of 32 in total defense. However, playing on the road in the NFL is always a different beast. Sure, they scored 29 against the Bears in Chicago two weeks ago, but is that really a huge accomplishment? I think not. Detroit will be desperate for a win in order to stay within reach of 1st place in the NFC North, even though I don’t see them getting anywhere close to the title this season.
Prediction
The Detroit Lions have shown they are a complete wildcard this season. They had an impressive late-game victory in Indianapolis week 1 (even though Indianapolis looks like a bottom-third NFL team), but dropped a home game to the Titans, and then lost on the road to the Packers and the toothless bears. Stafford looked bad against the Bears last week, throwing 2 interceptions and finished the game with a 40.8 QBR. Even with Detroit’s inconsistencies, one must always beware of the home underdog in the NFL. To me, this game feels like it should be an easy win for Wentz and the Eagles, but for some reason, I don’t think it’ll end up being that way…Detroit wins 30-23 in a trap game.
Best Bet
The home underdog is always a great bet for NFL games, so I would take Detroit +3. However, if you feel strongly about other games, I would just stay away from this one. I don’t feel great about the over since Schwartz has the Eagles defense playing well, but I also don’t trust the Detroit lions defense enough to take the under.
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles
When: Sunday, Oct. 9 (4:25 pm ET)
Forecast: Partly Cloudy, High 85 degrees, 5 mph
Outlook
Frankly I don’t want to give this game too much attention, because I like offense…I mean who doesn’t? If you’re like me in that regard, then this is a game you don’t really care about. The Bills (2-2) and Rams (3-1) have been playing better football as of late, illustrated by their 2-game and 3-game winning streaks, respectively. Both teams are known for their defense, and equally known for their lack of offense. If you watch the Red Zone Channel for the afternoon slate of games, you still probably won’t see much of this game…excited to watch this game yet? Don’t be.
Prediction
The Los Angeles Rams win the battles at the line of scrimmage and squeak out their 4th victory in a row…13-9
Best Bet
Under under under. I predict we see the teams combine for more punts than 10+ yard gains in this one. I don’t care if it is only set at 39.5 points, it’ll still probably be under. I don’t expect to see a lot of big plays and will come down to which team makes 1 or 2 fewer mistakes in a defensive battle…or maybe an offensive struggle is more accurate.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
When: Sunday, Oct. 9 (8:30 pm ET)
Forecast: Clear, High 61 degrees, 6 mph
Outlook
A clash of two of the NFL’s most historic franchises takes place in the Sunday night game. The Packers are coming off their early bye to host the New York Giants, who are playing on a shortened week after a loss at Minnesota on Monday night. The Green Bay offense looked much like the offense we as football fans are used to seeing from them, as they easily racked up 31 points in the first half against a struggling Lions team in week 3. However, they only managed to score 3 points in the second half and ended up winning by only 7. Green Bay boasts the best rushing defense in the NFL, allowing less than 50 yards per game on the ground. They’ve been able to rush the passer, but not at a level to cover the injuries they currently have in the secondary (Sam Shields out with a concussion, and Morgan Burnett returning from injury this week)...the Pack will need to play a solid 60-minute game to get a victory, as the Giants typically play them tough on the tundra.
The Gmen looked pretty poor on Monday night, but one probably can’t read into that too much. Minnesota looks like a potentially elite defense, and the Packers also lost in Minnesota in week 2. If you looked at both matchups, however, it appeared that the Packers beat themselves more than the Vikings did (poor play calling, poor offensive execution, poor secondary play, and below average quarterback play), whereas the Giants were just beaten. Based on that, you’d think the Packers should cover the -7 by which they’re currently favored. However, we all know NFL matchups can rarely be determined like this.
New York will look to give Eli Manning enough protection to take advantage of an injured Packers secondary, and it’s quite possible Ben McAdoo, former Packer assistant coach/offensive coordinator, will have a great idea for how to attack the Packer defense. The Giants secondary hasn’t been that great this year either, dealing with injuries to DRC and Eli Apple, and it’d be a huge boost to their secondary if one (or both) could return to action. In my opinion, this game will come down to the offense that makes the fewest mistakes and whichever offense is able to be most efficient…not a bold claim, but it rings true in this matchup.
Prediction
With serious question marks regarding the efficiency of the Giants rushing attack, and the level at which the Packers are defending the run, it’ll be very difficult for the Giants to be 2-dimensional in their offensive attack. However, you can never sleep on the 2-time Super Bowl winning Eli Manning, especially against a secondary that has largely underperformed so far this season, whether injured or not. The Giants will need to put up points to win, and a lot of that will depend on whether their players are able to keep their composure, which obviously remains to be seen. Neither team runs away with this one, but I give the edge to the home team in a primetime game…Packers come out on top 27-23.
Best Bet
I would take the over in this one, which is currently set at 48.5 points. So far this season, either secondary is playing at an elite level, and both offenses have enough weapons to light up the scoreboard through the air. Like I said before, the Giants typically play the Packers well at Lambeau, so I wouldn’t trust the Packers to cover 7/7.5 points, even though I predict a Packers win.
